UK WILL DO FINE - GERARD LYONS

The British economist Gerard Lyons is reputed to be an accurate economic forecaster.

In the late 1980s he correctly forecast that the 'Lawson Boom' would end in a Bust.

He correctly predicted sterling's exit from the ERM.

After Black Wednesday he correctly forecast that interest rates would fall sharply and the economy would grow strongly, which was contrary to the general consensus.

In 1999, he wisely opposed the UK adopting the euro, predicting that the combined currency would run into trouble, as occurred in the 2010 European sovereign-debt crisis.

The month before the 2008 financial crisis he was one of only two UK forecasters then predicting an imminent deep recession.



GERARD LYONS now writes in the Daily Mail:

1. The UK economy will do just fine. 

2. With quality goods at a competitive price, we can sell not just into the Single Market from outside the EU but into many markets across the globe.

3. This was not a vote against Europe but against the institutions and working practices of the European Union.

4. The recent scale of migration prevented wages from rising in some areas and increased pressure on public services and housing, creating tensions. 

This highlighted the need for both a sensible approach and for the government to invest more in infrastructure and to boost housing supply.

5. It makes sense to be thinking globally while distancing Britain from the plethora of crises that lie ahead for the EU.

These might include the Italian banking crisis, the German life insurance crisis, the Greek debt crisis, the youth unemployment crisis and the euro crisis. 



6. The UK now needs to focus on pro-growth policies driven by increased investment, infrastructure and innovation, where services, the City and manufacturing play their part.

7. We also need to start thinking less about zero-hour contracts and more about taking pride in ensuring that workers' rights are protected by Parliament.

8. The UK has made a clear, bold decision to distance itself from the centralising, controlling and regulating environment of the EU.

9. The countries that will succeed need to be global in their outlook, adaptable, flexible, and to control their own destiny. 

10. Many young people backed Remain, for many reasons, including fears that they would be unable to travel freely if we left the EU.

That is nonsense. People can travel freely across the globe now. 

Continued here: dailymail

THE UK ECONOMY

All graphs from the Financial Times - 3 December 2014.

The above graph shows that, in the UK, people are borrowing more and more money.

Most people are worse off than they were before 2008.

The so-called growth of the UK economy is based largely on borrowed money.

The UK government is also borrowing too much money.

The above graph shows that the UK is not doing well in terms of exports.

In the UK, tax revenues have been falling.

Less money is coming in by way of income tax.

#CameronMustGo viral on Twitter.

Margaret Thatcher made the big mistake of thinking that the Banks and Financial Service Industries were all that were needed to make Britain prosper.

Thatcher privatised the railways and the energy industry.

A recent poll published in The Times showed that a majority of the British want the Railways and the Energy Companies to be nationalised.

Inequality is the main problem.

The rich elite have too much money. The ordinary citizens have too little.

LONDON WILL BEG SCOTLAND TO USE THE POUND

The London politicians lied about Iraq.

They are now bluffing when they say they will not let an independent Scotland use the Pound.

Scotland will decide in a referendum, on 18 September 2014, whether or not to become independent.

David Cameron, the Conservative Party leader, who is of German Jewish origin, says that an independent Scotland will not be allowed to use the Pound, as part of a currency union.

Ed Miliband, the Labour Party leader, who is of Polish Jewish origin, says his party will include a commitment not to share the pound in its 2015 manifesto.

Alex Salmond, Scotland's First Minister, says, quite rightly, that "There is literally nothing anyone can do to stop an independent Scotland using sterling, which is an internationally tradeable currency."

Ecuador and Panama, for example, use the American dollar.

The fact is that the London government will be desperately keen for an independent Scotland to use the Pound and be part of a currency union.

Scotland is England's second biggest export market, and if Scotland uses its own currency, English exporters to Scotland will face increased costs.

England's balance of trade position is already weak.

The Pound could be weakened if it is not backed by Scotland's oil wealth.

Scotland has 90% of the UK's oil and gas and most of its alternative energy resources.

Scotland has 60% of the EU's oil reserves.

The wholesale value of the oil and gas remaining in Scotland's waters is greater than that already taken out.

In each and every one of the last 33 years, Scotland has generated more tax per head than the UK as a whole.

England imports more than it exports and it has huge debts.

Scotland exports more than it imports, and the canny Scots have much lower debts.




Scotland, with its tiny population, earns each year:

£1.9 billion from 'Life Sciences'

£5 billion from 'Creative Industries'

£6.2 billion from tourism

£13 billion from Food and Drink sales

£15 billion from manufacturing.

And, an independent Scotland will save money by not having to pay for London's wars, London's nuclear programmes and London's expensive infrastructure projects.

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