Thursday 20 July 2023

Suwalki Gap - Likely expanding of war into Poland, Lithuania and Baltics?

Suwalki Gap in RED. Russia and allies in yellow. NATO in blue

Unknown commented -

Suwalki Gap - Likely expanding of war into Poland, Lithuania and Baltics

Historically it is still a fog as to what exactly happened 84 years ago in August 1939 in the Danzig crisis. Conventional history says Nazis did a false flag of Poles attacking Germans; a minority thinks Poles provoked Germans on purpose, at British urging, in order to ignite full scale war.

And today we are also looking at a much larger war maybe about to start, in a similar 'fog', just 125 kilometres east of Danzig (Gdansk), in another former Prussian region, Kaliningrad that used to be Köningsberg, with all the pressure of both NATO and Russia on the 'Suwalki Gap', the 100-kilometre border run between Russia's Kaliningrad and Russia's ally Belarus.

Named after the Polish town of Suwałki, this gap or corridor is a vital intersection, with railway and highway lorry lines for the Russians ... and also the only land crossing between the Baltic States and the rest of NATO. Either side can cut off the other, map here:

Russians have complained for a year that most of Russia's military was not used in Ukraine. But now the reason is clear ... Russia has been preparing for a possible wider war with NATO, which Russians say may be pushed onto them ... and which NATO says is Russia's plan.

Prigozhin's Wagner contractors are now not only near Kiev in Belarus ... these elite fighters of Russia are poised as well to seize the Suwalki gap and fight their way through to Kaliningrad and break any blockade.

We enter into a new dangerous war phase precisely because Ukraine has essentially lost. Ukraine is running out of fighters to die, and Western weaponry has proved much weaker than expected.

But the USA and the West likely cannot even tolerate 'freezing' things as they are. There are too many crises, a return to normal politics might allow upheaval. Expanded war might be necessary for elites to keep control. 

Upcoming we have-

- Western populations angry that money is wasted on war instead of on human needs

- An EU winter without cheap energy, in economic crisis ... endangering not only NATO but even the survival of the EU
- A visible failure of USA-NATO weaponry finally meeting a major adversary
- Escalating wheat and food prices making for global instability

Expanding the war solves many problems for the elites ... it 'explains' all crisis ... war with Russians on EU territory, can justify draconian censorship and quasi-dictatorship, in the EU and maybe the UK and elsewhere as well.

Kaliningrad land routes can be blockaded by Lithuania and Poland, and with Finland and Sweden going into Nato, via the Baltic sea as well. It may be 'unclear' as to what exactly is happening - just as in August 1939.

Blockade of the Russians was threatened by Lithuania last June, but the West backed off under Russian threat, still thinking Ukraine could pull off some success with NATO weaponry and mercenaries

Also - Estonia has 29% Russians, Latvia 25% ... if the Baltics begin treating Russians harshly, or are claimed to do so, Russians have pretext for moving in.

As war blogger Simplicius notes, Ukraine may even become half-forgotten as the war expands West into EU-NATO lands. But as he also notes, even though hundreds of thousands of troops will be moving and in action on EU territory ... the West and Russia may well still work to keep conflict somewhat 'contained', well below 'nuclear'.

The EU - already used to illegalities - can quickly impose a new continent-wide militaristic regime, national sovereignties even more curtailed. UK may adopt a 'war footing' as well. And the 'new larger' war in Europe, will give elites all the pretexts they need to end what was previously allowed as 'democracy'.


At 21 July 2023 at 13:04 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Putin has arrested Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, the hugely popular Russian nationalist hero of the 2014 Donbass rebellion, and leading voice recently in the 'Club of Angry Patriots' criticising the way Russian operations in Ukraine are being conducted

"Girkin said that if he was arrested, that meant that the patriots within the Russian government had lost and that the war was lost and that Russia would capitulate to the West."

At 21 July 2023 at 15:16 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Russian commenting on the troubling arrest of Igor Strelkov -

"It's became a tradition that any public Russian figure with a good conscience ends up in jail at some point in his life. That led up to a meme that becoming an ex-inmate is essential in a Russian political career."

Strelkov and the 'patriot doomers' believe that the Kremlin has been slow-walking the Ukraine conflict, in a covert alliance with Western elites for a globalist order that will not serve Russians, that is the 'surrender' he is talking about

Strelkov was laughing recently about Putin body doubles ... one in the Kremlin who is very fearful of germs, the Putin in photos sitting at the other end of a long table ... and another 'Putin' out in streets kissing members of the public and taking cheek-to-cheek selfies with them

Classic photo chart with 7 different 'Putins' and descriptions -

At 21 July 2023 at 15:28 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

5 different Putins, good photo collage

At 22 July 2023 at 04:35 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Putin spoke in a recorded video conference on Thursday 20 July with members of Russia’s Security Council. Putin's key points:

- The West knows that Ukraine has inadequate soldiers remaining, and NATO weapons have failed there
- There are openly plans to widen the conflict involving troops of Poland and Lithuania, involving Belarus as well as Ukraine and the Suwalki Gap
- Russia will NOT interfere in Ukraine selling its western territory to Poland, or Polish troops occupying Lvov or other areas in western Ukraine
- Russia will fight fiercely against any NATO actions targeting Belarus or Kaliningrad

Vladimir Putin:

"It is clear today that the Western curators of the Kiev regime are certainly disappointed with results. The colossal resources that were pumped into the Kiev regime, the supply of Western weapons ... the deployment of thousands of foreign mercenaries and advisers ... are not helping

The whole world sees that the vaunted Western, supposedly invulnerable, military equipment is on fire

The Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered huge losses ... despite incessant waves of total mobilisaiton ... it is increasingly difficult to send new soldiers to the front [few are left to conscript]

People in Ukraine are asking a legitimate question more often: for what, for the sake of whose selfish interests, are their relatives and friends dying

We can see public opinion changing in Europe. Both Europeans and European elites see that support for Ukraine is, in fact, a dead end, an empty, endless waste of money and effort ... serving the interests of the overseas global hegemon [USA], which benefits from the weakening of Europe

Media reports that have come out about plans to establish some sort of Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian unit ... The outlook is clear: Polish forces enter, say, Lvov or other Ukrainian territories, they will stay there, and they will stay there for good ... [This] is none of our business. We will not interfere.

Ukrainian cannon fodder is no longer enough for the West. That is why it is planning to use other expendables – Poles, Lithuanians and everyone else they do not care about.

I can tell you that this is an extremely dangerous game, and the authors of such plans should think about the consequences."


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