TRUMP COULD WIN?

Melania Trump, second from right: Small-town Slovenia.

Think of big cities versus small rural towns.

Small rural towns in the USA may tend to support Trump.

In 2015, the Republicans (RED) had control of the Senates in most states.

Currently, in the USA, the Republicans control most state governments.

The Republicans' dominance is said to be based on the support of poorer people in small rural towns.

www.longroom.com.

Think of big cities versus small towns.

Small rural towns in the UK tended to support exit from the EU.


BLUE - Exit. YELLOW - Remain.

Ken Fisher, in the Financial Times, writes that Trump could win.

Fisher writes that in the UK, "the media, pundits, politicians and prediction markets were too London and urban-focused, underestimating rural voters everywhere."

In England, "the vote was almost purely big cities for Remain versus tiny-town England for Leave.

"Tiny won...

"Similar sources underrate Donald Trump's chances in the same way...

"They view politics as urban-based and top-down..."


Electoral College results of the past four US Presidential elections (1996, 2000, 2004, 2008)

  States carried by the Republicans in all four elections

  States carried by the Republicans in three of the four elections

  States carried by each party twice in the four elections

  States carried by the Democrats in three of the four elections

  States carried by the Democrats in all four elections

"21 states and Washington DC voted Democratic in at least four of the last five, hence their label as 'blue states'.

"24 'red states' voted Republican, with five remaining swing states.

"Since blue states have 257 electoral votes - 13 short of what is needed - the media industry presumes Hillary Clinton has a huge edge...

"But ... Republicans control most state governments...

"Take Michigan, a so-called blue state in which Republicans now hold both legislative houses and all state officers.

"The same applies in other blue states: bottom-up they've evolved to be 'red'.


Wealthiest areas - dark green

"Democrats control just 11 state legislatures, versus 31 for Republicans and eight split...

"In 1978, Democrats held 20 of the 33 poorest states.

"Now they hold just two of the 33 poorest.

"Republicans have now replaced the Democrats as the party of the poor in rural areas...

"Trump would win 309 electoral college votes, 39 more than he needs...

"It's a revolt of the invisible poor...


Maine

"It's in Denmark with the rural based People’s Party.

"In Italy the Five Star’s strength stems primarily from small town and rural.

"Or France’s National Front, which is mostly non-Parisian.

"Or Austria’s support for presidential candidate Norbert Höfer, who just forced a revote.

More here: Trump could win



Of course, a president Trump and his Republicans may not actually help the rural poor.

TRUMP IS AN ESTABLISHMENT INSIDER, who likes big cities.



And the UK's vote to leave the EU may not actually change very much.

There may be a second referendum.

May's aide hints at second referendum.

Some of the right-wing leaders of the LEAVE campaign do not want to reduce immigration.

Dan Hannan insists Brexit 'will NOT lead to a reduction in migration'.

Nigel Farage warns that Tories are 'backsliding' over immigration.

Neocons linked to Tea Party paid for Andrea Leadsom's flights to US.

Chicago policemen and a suspect.

How do you keep a country united?

Austin in Texas is much wealthier than Palm Bay in Florida.

The District of Columbia is much wealthier than Mississippi.

In the USA, there is a very big gap between rich and poor areas.

If N.C.'s GDP were a country..

In Switzerland, Zug and is the richest canton.

But, none of the Swiss cantons is poor.

Population below poverty line 
Switzerland 6.9% 
USA 15.1% 

In the UK, London and Scotland are doing well.

Scotland rivalled only by London for inward investment.

But parts of the UK are becoming like Detroit.



The London government spends vast sums on transport in London and tiny sums on transport in the North East of England.

"Promised government spending on transport in the North East over the next two decades is £246 per person, compared with £4,893 per head in London."

The North East, unlike the of England, exports more than it imports!

England's northeast fears economic isolation - FT.com.



The journalist and economist John Kay has written about how to keep a country united

Kay writes about 'solidarity' - meaning mutual support.

Kay writes that in the USA "there is no explicit mechanism of redistribution of resources among states."

However, "Switzerland makes transfers from richer to poorer cantons."

Kay suggests that in countries such as the UK rural areas, and deprived urban communities, need more expenditure.

In Australia, a grants commission "attempts to parcel out central government funds on an objective basis to states and territories."

Switzerland is the country to copy?

SWITZERLAND has its problems with EVIL.



Switzerland is not perfect but it is peaceful and prosperous.

Switzerland is divided up into cantons and towns (communes). 

In Switzerland, the central government (federal government) is not given too much power; the cantons and towns have a lot of power; referendums are held.

The central government controls foreign policy, defense, the railways and the mint.

If the central government brings in a new policy, a referendum can be held to vote it down.

There is a six-month period during which a referendum can be called by any person or group able to get 50,000 signatures on a petition. 

A central government policy can be thrown out by a simple majority vote in a referendum.

www.swissinfo.ch. There is some poverty in Switzerland, but it is not as bad as in the USA.

The cantons and communes control economic policy, welfare policy, the police, education and so on. 

Each canton has its own parliament and constitution.

Switzerland spends a lot on welfare and education but manages to keep taxes relatively low. 

This is because there are no huge ministeries full of useless civil servants, or bureaucrats.

Cantons and large communes have referendums and 'initiatives'. An 'initiative' is when an ordinary citizen proposes a new policy or law.

Main source: ISIL -- The Swiss Cantonal System